This BPN Newbie will offer a different perspective. I do not naturally "think" in A/Av mode (or manual mode, unless using flash indoors). As I spend a lot of my time photographing fast moving Ultimate frisbee competition, I have a Shutter-priority mindset (whether it's wise or not). When capturing Ultimate, I want to freeze the motion most of the time, and that requires a shutter speed of 400-640 to get good results and I'll let the F-stop float as high as possible because often the action & expressions of other players and spectators are priceless. If I'm at risk of underexposing, I have my camera set to automatically raise the ISO up to a ceiling of 800.
By reflex I've taken this mindset with me to wildlife photography, and this message thread has given me cause to question that mindset (and is an excellent education process, btw), however, to answer the question given that preface:
1) D300
2) Try to focus/meter on the bird, i.e. +0EV (I use center wtd auto metering) and spin the shutter speed up to at least 1/400 if not already there (probably would be due to the abundant sunlight)
3) As the gator enters the shadows, if I'm over 1/400, I'd spin back down to 1/400 by reflex as my minimum for action (would love to get it higher to freeze the splash, but would probably freeze myself when it came to any other exposure adjustment
Then of course I'd be glad I as shooting raw and try to recover in PP. Looking forward to the answers!
-Kevin
www.ultiphotos.com